“It’s a very grassroots party. “Which party looks like it’s more optimistic about the future?” posits Elizabeth May. Frustrated by Grits and NDP, Canadian leftists turn to socialist Green leadership candidates. Newsletters may offer personalized content or advertisements. Howard is an emergency room doctor in Yellowknife who argues the climate crisis is not just a threat to the planet, but a threat to human health. Her expected transfers from eliminated candidates should be strong, but her projected result is the most sensitive to the order of elimination of other candidates. A life coach and computer scientist from Nova Scotia who used to work as an airframe technician for the Canadian Armed Forces, Green has said she is running because she wants to strengthen the Green party as a “grassroots” political movement. The owner of this site is using Wordfence to manage access to their site. Annamie is expected to place first in initial voting. She is projected to receive strong transfers in most rounds, allowing her to maintain a solid hold on third place, but the gap between her and Dimitri is almost certainly too large to be made up. Criticizing the party’s most progressive wing for being antagonistic toward the private sector, Murray (fourth in total fundraising) proposes a consensus-building approach based on values, such as addressing climate change and ending poverty, that a broad spectrum of Canadians can get behind. Lascaris cuts a controversial figure in the party, having participated in public squabbles over the party’s policy advocating boycott and sanctions against Israel (which he strongly supports) and having been criticized by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for accusing Liberal MPs of being more committed to Israel than their duties as Canadian legislators. (This is known as the Monte Carlo method.) If leadership candidates are united in one thing, it’s their belief that Canadians—many of them disenchanted by their political options, especially a flailing NDP—will be open to other Green ideas, too, as a minority Parliament debates a post-pandemic economy. The gathered data is used to project, for each candidates, their first-round vote totals and their ability to attract transferred votes from eliminated candidates. September 3, 2020, (Top, L-R): Annamie Paul, Andrew West, Amita Kuttner, Glen Murray (Second row, L-R): David Merner, Courtney Howard, Dimitri Lascaris and Meryam Haddad (Courtesy of the Annamie Paul campaign; Courtesy of the Green Party of Canada). Paul won a bare majority of votes in the eighth round, defeating Dimitri Lascaris. rights reserved. A former Liberal partisan who jumped ship when the Trudeau government nationalized the Trans Mountain oil pipeline, Merner styles himself as a walking-talking example of how the Greens can grow. Her platform includes calls for a study of democratic reforms that includes mandatory voting, bring long-term care under federal health law and create a guaranteed basic income. This projection is intended to be non-partisan, and was created and published as a way to test the model under real-world circumstances. It will be a “tall order” to unite the party’s factions behind a single candidate, says interim leader Jo-Ann Roberts, who jokes she is trying to be a “palate cleanser” between May and her successor. This is a non-partisan projection of the outcome of the Green Party of Canada’s 2020 leadership race. Values are rounded to the nearest 0.1%. Propelled by a late surge of support, then surviving an eleventh-hour expulsion and reinstatement, Meryam is the candidate most likely to defy accurate projection. Star Newspapers Limited and/or its licensors. The Green Party of Canada has chosen a multilingual Toronto lawyer as its new leader over a more radical candidate from Quebec. Change ). Of all candidates, Amita has the widest set of possible outcomes. They want to cut ties to the Commonwealth and create a new parliamentary republic that ensures Indigenous representation. Change ), You are commenting using your Google account. An emergency physician, an astrophysicist, a former mayor and several lawyers walk into a bar. These are their responses, as submitted, with light editing for grammar and format. When tested on two past leadership races (NDP 2017 and Conservative 2020), the model correctly projected the final outcome, the number of rounds, and the ranking of candidates in each round for both races. Can a person’s favoured candidate, in this final week, improve upon their standing? The Green Party leadership race is a more challenging one to forecast for several reasons, including the pandemic, much less data available compared to larger parties, and several irregularities that occurred during the campaign. The Bloc Québécois, for example, received 1,387,030 votes in 2019 compared to the Greens’ 1,189,607, but they elected 32 MPs to Parliament.
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