The Liberals won Mission–Matsqui–Fraser Canyon in 2015, the first time since 1974 the party had won a riding sharing territory with this sprawling federal seat. Green Leader Andrew Weaver’s seat is within the federal boundaries of Victoria, and with the NDP’s Murray Rankin not running again, the seat is ripe for the picking for the Greens — if they can make good on their uptick in the polls. • CBC News The two will be facing off again in this riding, one of many in the Halton and Peel regions that will play a big role in deciding if any party can win a majority government. The Liberals’ Julie Dzerowicz wrestled the riding back in 2015 by a margin of just three points; she’ll face off against Cash again in October. Audience Relations, CBC P.O. October 18, 2019 Final Ontario Predictions Update. Closed Captioning and Described Video is available for many CBC shows offered on CBC Gem. If the Bloc Québécois wins Beloeil–Chambly, it will accomplish something it hasn’t since 2008 — by sending its leader to the House of Commons. Prior to that he served as a North York councillor and a member of its board of education. The urban areas in southwestern Ontario tend to be closely-fought three-way battles between the Liberals, Conservatives and NDP. The NDP holds seats in both the northern parts of these two provinces and in the urban centres of Winnipeg, Saskatoon and Regina. If she does not survive, however, the future of the NDP in the province will be even grimmer than it already appears. But Brison resigned at the beginning of the year, touching off a sequence of events that ended with the departure of Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott from the Liberal cabinet and caucus and the party’s subsequent drop in support. If there’s just one riding where the Liberals could feel the political fallout of the Trans Mountain purchase, it’s the riding where the pipeline meets the sea: Burnaby North–Seymour. He will face new challengers from the Liberals and NDP. The federal Conservatives, who haven’t won here since 1984, want to do the same. You can listen to Filion's predictions about that in this conversation on CBC Radio's Metro Morning. Re: Ontario General Election Prediction thread « Reply #22 on: May 26, 2018, 03:36:01 pm » Ford looks very well positioned for a "perfect storm" in Toronto: Basically the bulk of Ford Nation and the Harper 2011 seats. The 338Canada project is a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history of Canadian provinces and demographic data. A bastion of former Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe, the riding went to the NDP’s Hélène Laverdière in 2011 and stayed with her in 2015. Brison wasn’t a Liberal candidate in 1997 and 2000 either, when he won the riding as a Progressive Conservative. Berthier–Maskinongé was one of the rare ridings in Quebec where the NDP’s share of the vote actually increased between 2011 and 2015 — largely thanks to Ruth Ellen Brosseau, the parachute candidate from Ottawa who made her home in the riding after unexpectedly winning it in the NDP’s orange wave. Willowdale Councillor John Filion calling it quits ahead of Toronto election, B.C. The NDP has fewer incumbents running for re-election than other parties, putting those seats at risk. Burlington had gone Conservative in the three previous elections and, with the sole exception of the 2014 vote, has elected the Ontario PCs in every election since 1943 at the provincial level. Janet Davis recently announced her retirement, while others including Coun. Trois-Rivières was a Bloc Québécois stronghold for nearly 20 years until the New Democrats won it in 2011. That helped the NDP win in a close three-way race in Regina–Lewvan, but the seat could be up for grabs now after the party booted Erin Weir from caucus for allegedly inappropriate behaviour. One of the ridings with the youngest voters in the country, Churchill–Keewatinook Aski has the most residents who claim First Nations identity (70.3 per cent) of any riding in Canada. Without an incumbent, and with a portion of the local party apparatus having backed Weir throughout the dispute, the New Democrats look hobbled — which presents an opportunity to the Conservatives. Losing Beloeil–Chambly to Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet also would be a symbolic loss for the NDP: it was here in a 1990 byelection that the New Democrats won their first seat ever in the province. B.C. Hamilton is usually friendly territory for New Democrats. But the party also says it believes it could make inroads into new territory, particularly in the Greater Toronto Area. Once a Liberal stronghold, La Pointe-de-l’Île hasn’t voted for the party since 1980. Two-thirds of the population in Brampton East is South Asian, according to the 2016 census. Karina Gould’s victory in Burlington was one of the surprises in 2015. Outside of Quebec, where its support has collapsed, the NDP could be pushed out of some of its traditional strongholds in this fall’s election. Still looking decent for the Liberals, who have Doug Ford to thank in part, but not as robust a win as last time. Three brand new seats will also be up for grabs this year, due to Toronto's redrawn ward map. Filion isn't the only current councillor leaving office ahead of the October 22 election. Support for the Green Party is strongest on Vancouver Island and that’s where it has its best hopes for gains. The federal Greens are hoping to repeat some of that success on the Island in October, but it’s hard to find a riding where the Greens have a real shot. more information Accept. Where do Justin Trudeau’s Liberals need to win to secure re-election? Coun. And even where the NDP does have incumbents, the party can’t take anything for granted. Filion isn't the only current councillor leaving office ahead of the October 22 election. The NDP brand has some staying power in this part of the province, however — the provincial B.C. In 2015, Bryan May of the Liberals took it back for the party by a margin of less than five percentage points. Outside the GTA, there are some key ridings the Conservatives won in 2011 that they’d probably need to win again in 2019 in order to form a majority government. The Liberals have won 15 of the last 19 votes held here, but the margins were close in 2015 — and Ford’s PCs captured a majority of ballots cast in Richmond Hill last year. Southwestern Ontario was an important part of Stephen Harper’s majority win in 2011, when his party captured the small urban centres in this part of the province. The New Democrats have had more success in downtown Toronto in the past, though they lost all of their seats in the city in the last election. Liberal MLA Gordie Hogg, the Conservatives and their predecessor parties had held sway in the riding uninterrupted for 43 years. Andrew Saxton, who won the seat for the Conservatives in 2008 and 2011 and finished second-to-last in the 2017 leadership race, will be running against Wilkinson again. Read about the 60 ridings in the six themes below. Conservatives targeting the nationalist vote, Breaching the Liberals’ Fortress Toronto, Alberta, the B.C. Jim Hart aren't expected to run again. So it was always going to be close — but the Liberals will be particularly focused on winning this seat again to keep it out of the hands of Leona Alleslev, who crossed the floor from their party to the Conservatives in 2018. The Liberals are boosted by the presence of a cabinet minister — Maryam Monsef, minister for women and gender equality — but the riding was won by a relatively modest margin of just under nine points in 2015. The Liberals also will be looking to pick up a seat the Bloc managed to win with less than one-in-three votes in 2015. If the Liberals can attract that NDP vote, they could leapfrog the Conservatives into first place.

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